Will Morocco Be the Next Hot Spot for Oil and Gas?
Angola has emerged as the new oil and gas powerhouse in Africa. Nigeria and Angola are the continent’s leading oil producers, followed by Algeria, Libya and Egypt. These are the five biggest African oil producers which have been enjoying the benefits of accounting for 85% of Africa’s oil production.
Morocco: An Angola in the making?
Several energy companies have turned their attention to Morocco lately, scouring the previously untapped land for precious oil and gas resources. Morocco enjoys political stability and operates under a constitutional monarchy and a democratically elected government. Can Morocco be the new Angola and join the group of top oil-producing African nations?
Morocco is neighboring the gas-rich Algeria and imports more than 90% of its gas and 99% of its oil. However, the country is stepping up its efforts to produce oil locally. The Hydrocarbon Law has been amended to improve terms, and oil and gas royalty rates don’t exceed 10% or 5%, respectively. The new entrants also benefit from a 10-year tax break. All the resources in Morocco are managed by the Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM). Through the state-owned ONHYM, Morocco owns 25% of the working interests in oil- and gas-fields development.
Morocco is one of the most under-explored nations with a significantly lower well density versus the global average. Few offshore wells have been drilled so far while the majority of onshore drilling was carried out in the 1960s and 1970s. Morocco has only 1.6 wells per 10,000 square kilometers of licensed offshore acreage, compared to the world average of 51, or 100 in Nigeria, by the same measure, according to research by Sanford C. Bernstein.
The area offshore the Atlantic coast comprises the Morocco Atlantic Margin shelf, which extends more than 3,000 km along the shore line. The exploration and production started in 1929 and increased to reach a peak of production of 8,400 bopd in 1970s.
According to Citigroup, oil companies are planning as many as 10 wells in Moroccan waters through 2014. That’s twice what was drilled in the past decade and represents the fastest pace opening wells since at least 2000.
Be proactive not reactive
Since “the early bird catches the worm”, let’s be proactive by taking a dive into the companies traded on the US markets that own significant acreage, gather seismic data, conduct geophysical surveys or are about to start soon their exploration programs in Morocco:
1) Vermilion Energy (TSX: VET) was recently granted an initial 12-month onshore exploration authorization and hopes to establish an early entry position in Morocco’s emerging resources plays. This is an exploration permit for 2.3 million acres and Vermilion plans to develop it with the free cash flow anticipated from its other international operations in France, Netherlands, Australia and Ireland. Vermilion is currently working on this project by reprocessing of 2D seismic data, geological and geophysical studies. This project might also be funded in the future through a joint venture, according to the company.
2) Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) has exposure to Morocco due to the recent acquisition of Plains Exploration and Production. Pura Vida was awarded 75% WI in the Mazagan permit in Q4 2011. It farmed in Plains Exploration in January for 52% WI. Plains paid $15 million cash and a carry-on up to $215 million for two wells and up to 2,500 square kilometers 3D seismic. These two wells are expected to cost $75 million to $80 million each ($150 million to $160 million total).
Plains brings its knowledge in salt-basin exploration from its experience in the US Gulf of Mexico, and is likely going to drill a well in 2014, targeting the Toubkal structure, which could contain 1.5 billion barrels of oil.
3) Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) has established a large position in southeastern Morocco, on the Algerian border. Anadarko is looking at the shales that come in from Algeria and extend into Morocco. The company has already completed some seismic surveys, but has yet to make a decision on whether to proceed with further operations there. However, Anadarko has noted that fiscal conditions in Morocco are conducive to profitably developing shale.
This wait-and-see approach stems primarily from the fact that neighboring Algeria hasn’t finalized the amendment of its petroleum legislation yet. Anadarko believes that the modification of the Algerian petroleum legislation is necessary to make Algeria a viable prospect for unconventional oil and gas. Once Algeria completes this modification, Anadarko will evaluate how to proceed with its operations on the Algerian border.
4) Kosmos Energy (NYSE: KOS) holds a significant position offshore Morocco. This acreage is located in the under-explored Agadir (three Blocks) and Aaiun Basins (one Block), totaling approximately 14 million gross acres. This is a post- and pre-salt Cretaceous play that has substantial running room, according to the company, which is currently processing and interpreting 3D seismic data from its 2012 data acquisition. Kosmos is looking to farm-down ahead of drilling and is planning for initial exploration drilling in late 2013.
5) Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is also hunting for oil in Morocco. In early 2013, the company signed petroleum agreements with ONHYM for three offshore areas. The areas encompass 11,300 square miles with average water depths ranging from between 330 feet to 14,700 feet. Chevron holds a 75% stake in the three exploration blocks and plans to start its 2D/3D seismic offshore program soon.
6) A few months ago, Total was awarded the 100,000 square kilometers reconnaissance licence in the offshore Anzarane block. The original reconnaissance licence expired in December 2012. Total’s block is located in the very south of the country and its partner is ONHYM. Total hasn’t provided publicly any more information about its plans in Morocco.
7) EOG Resources also took a position in the country in 2012. Its onshore acreage is located in the Tadla Basin, which is in the center of Morocco and appears to have potential for shale gas resource. However, the company’s shale gas exploration activity in the area has been very limited thus far.
8) Repsol holds significant acreage on the Moroccan coast and its plan is to assess the potential of gas-bearing sands off the African coast and the Canary Islands by 2014. Repsol is one of the first foreign companies with successful drilling results in Morocco. In 2009, it discovered two columns of gas totaling 90 meters in the Tanger-Larache area, 40 kilometers from the coast of Morocco.
Toronto-listed junior Longreach Oil and London-listed Cairn Energy, Circle Oil, Genel Energy, Gulfsands Petroleum, Chariot Oil and San Leon have also properties in Morocco and are gradually making progress on their exploration plans.
Foolish round Up
It remains to be seen how successful the first drilling results will be. If money starts flowing into the Moroccan oil industry, let’s hope that it won’t repeat what has already happened in some other oil-producing countries. Let’s hope that the wealth generated from Morocco’s oil and gas production will translate into higher standards of living for its citizens, and the wealth won’t be accumulated by a few politicians, their privileged friends, and the companies they hand out contracts to.
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